The electronic crystal ball has shown me two words: "declaration sufficiently". I see a country. I see an island. I see a dissertation. The future becomes clear.

Taiwan's recent presidential election, where for the first time voters chose a candidate in favor of formal independence from China over a member of the Kuomintang, which favors eventual reunification, spurred discussion of the issue of independence. While that vast majority of Taiwan's citizens prefer the status quo over formally declaring independence, nearly half now identify themselves as Taiwanese rather than Chinese--a number which has increased by 2 1/2 times over than past 12 years. Why maintain the status quo? Because if China is sufficiently provoked, they are likely to take military action. Better a prosperous if somewhat ambiguous peace than war. This much you can learn without a crystal ball.

I foresee that a student at National Taiwan University, inspired by the controversy, will write a dissertation challenging the practical application of the assertion that a billion Chinese can't be wrong. The paper will argue that, while it is true that a billion Chinese can't all be wrong, the reason for that is not because it is impossible for a billion people to agree on something that isn't correct, but because it is impossible for a billion people to agree at all. It will further argue that the more practically applicable assertion would be that a billion Chinese can't all be sufficiently well informed on any particular issue to make educated agreement between them possible. The paper will conclude with the argument that a single government can't possible represent a billion people, and that therefore, formal separation of Taiwan from China is necessary.

I foresee that the Chinese government will dispute the paper's findings, try the author in absentia and sentence him to death, and begin a multi-billion-dollar propaganda campaign to education the entire country on one simple, non-controversial issue in order to disprove the paper's conclusions. After a nationwide poll on the issue, the government will declare the campaign a success, and claim that it proves that the dissertation is incorrect, and that therefore, Taiwan must return to Chinese rule.

Can this future be avoided? Yes. Email spammers can to stem the Red Tide by flooding China with messages contradicting the propaganda program's claims. The messages must contain pirated MP3s in order to be effective. If this is done, China's internet will be so overloaded that poll results will fail to be returned for tallying, and many of the results will be deleted in order to make room for additional MP3s. This will lead to the abandonment of the whole issue as the government finally turns its attention to the issue of closing open email relays to cut down on junk email.